One place I like to check for inspiration for predictive domaining now and again is the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the US. They have a media relations section that is well regarded and spurs the media to write quite extensively on those topics.
Interesting connections
Browsing today, I was struck by an interesting connection they made. The article “Reductions in Smoking Show Promise for Reducing Home Fire Deaths” may seem obvious but when so many articles are published regarding the health benefits of stopping smoking and about secondhand smoke, this puts a different spin on the public health issue.
A more bizarre connection was described in a recent AP article titled “Urine bottles: Another result of high fuel prices?”. Here it is thought that the large increase in urine filled plastic bottles found by the side of the road is due to truckers not wanting to stop due to the high price of fuel.
While these two examples do not directly impact predictive domaining, it is this kind of lateral thinking that can help you take a trend and find a less obvious consequence which you might be able to exploit.
Well researched trends
Another press release on the CDC site talks about “U.S. Deaths Down Sharply in 2006“.
“Age-adjusted death rates in the United States dropped significantly between 2005 and 2006 and life expectancy hit another record high, according to preliminary death statistics released today by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.”
With increased life expectancy comes a large number of knock-on effects. The disease patterns are changing to “diseases of age” such as Alzheimers. In fact the report states that “Alzheimer’s disease overtook diabetes as the 6th leading cause of death in the United States in 2006.”
The consequence of aging
Further down, there is a release called “New CDC study underscores impact of older adult falls” which documents the impact of falls in the elderly and the impact. The report goes on to say “As the U.S. population ages, the problem of older adult falls is expected to increase.”.
So here is a clear prediction from a well regarded government agency and so the question is how to benefit from it. One could think about fall prevention, remodeling of homes to make them safe, osteoporosis (brittle bones), eldercare, geriatricians (doctors specializing in eldercare) and so on.
Finding domain names
Hunting through these releases will help you hone your predictive skills and should turn up a gem from time to time. Remember to look for a base longterm trend and avoid the temporary fads. It is ok however to invest in cyclical or reoccuring topics.
For example, the avian flu epidemic has not come to pass, at least not yet. Much of the public interest has waned but this is an area which almost inevitably will gain momentum again as further developments occur in the flu virus. This sort of on again – off again interest level can still be exploited.
