Google has shown that by analyzing search patterns related to flu, they can predict flu outbreaks sooner than the Center for Disease Control (CDC). In a publication entitled “Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data” in Nature, a premier science journal this month, they show that monitoring 45 flu related search terms, they can predict flu outbreaks a week to 2 weeks before the CDC.
I talked last time about Google Insights for Search and previously about Google Trends and showed you how search terms can have periodicity with peaks or dips that occur predictably. Well this is exactly the type of data that Google used to try to predict flu outbreaks.
Increase in flu related search terms
The key is that the increase in flu related search terms is close to immediate whereas the Center for Disease Control (CDC) relies on doctor reporting. This means that flu search patterns can predict flu outbreaks with a lag of about one day whereas the CDC reports lag by about two weeks.
Google have set up a website for flu trends which shows the trends as well as explains how they do this. They do not say what the precise search terms are that they use but in the Nature paper they do say “Combining the n = 45 highest-scoring queries was found to obtain the best fit.”. The 45 search terms include symptoms and remedies for flu as well as complications from flu.
The data is only available for the US right now but the technique should be applicable to other countries as well. Not only that, other search trends should help predict other disease outbreaks and find other social applications.
About the flu
Flu actually has a high mortality rate each year. Every year in the United States, on average 5% to 20% of the population gets the flu; more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu complications, and; about 36,000 people die from flu. Some people, such as older people, young children, and people with certain health conditions, are at high risk for serious flu complications.
Flu Pandemic
Global application of this tool should help monitor potential pandemic outbreaks of flu. As you have probably read in the press, we are long overdue for a pandemic. Most experts feel it is only a matter of time. Proper vaccination (right strain before it reaches that population) and availability of certain flu drugs could help control such an outbreak but only if we respond quickly. The flu drugs work best when given as soon as possible.
It is nice to see the power of a search engine being turned to help society. You too can harness that power with Google Trends or Google Insights for Search.
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