Geo-domaining relies on current population statistics to choose regions or cities with sufficient population to make it worthwhile. But what will be the most populous cities in the future? Here is a free excel file of future projections of the most populous cities worldwide.
Geo-domaining
Geo-domaining is a form of domaining where geographical information is key. NYC.com is a good example and with very targeted traffic from type-ins and searches, conversion rates tend to be higher. Also the owner can make deals with local businesses on the basis of the highly targeted traffic.
Population growth
Obviously a geo-domain with a larger population is of more interest though its not the only factor to consider. Income level is another factor that is often taken into account. Clearly populations are changing constantly and so if we look at geo-domaining from a predictive domaining point of view, projections of population change would be of interest.
Population projections for 2025 and 2030
Demographia.com has the population projections for 2025 and 2030 along with current gross domestic product as a measure of income level or wealth. This information is in a pdf file which is not very useful so I extracted the information and organized it in an excel file which you can download for free at the end of this post.
Predictive geo-domaining
So by looking to the future, you can begin to assess whether there are any undervalued opportunities. Population and GDP though are probably not enough. Other information such as tourism, disposable income and development (housing, business, tourism) potential are other pieces of the puzzle. Much of this information can be found on the web with some research.
The financial crisis does complicate matters in the short term because many developed geo-domains depend on tourism, hotels, restaurants and other recession sensitive businesses for income. For long term investment though I think geo-domains will do well.
Here is the predictive geo-domaining file with data courtesy of Demographia.com
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Interesting observation, but are geodomains related to the decriptor on the left, or the CCTLD on the right?
Currently, there are 13m regs on the .CN spaca, and IDNs are picking up steam.
Is this a purely .COm perspective, or one based on securing cctld’s on say, .de or .co.uk et al. Just curious.
Terence,
The data isnt directly linked to domain names. It is just population data. In each case, you would have to decide as you said whether to go for the .com or the .de etc. The .com is probably a definite if you are thinking tourism and is probably worth getting for any market if you have decided to target that market. The cctlds are very much a case by case basis.
I cant cover all the factors but in general if the city is a significant market within the country e.g. capital cities almost always are, and if it is a well used cctld within that country, i would get it. Of course it should now show parked ads in that language and be developed in that language.
Many of these will probably already be taken because they currently have large populations. The markets to watch are the ones with most growth in population but also in development e.g. india and china
Careful research is needed to do this and i have only scraped the surface of that here.
Interesting, but I firmly believe that by 2025 the way we interface with the internet will be different, and as a result the value of dot coms will be much reduced. All it would take is the dominant browsers agreeing a new protocol. But by then browsers themselves will be totally different anyway.
Perhaps a look at the way changes in the internet could change domaining would be interesting – if you have already written on this could you let me know the article.
Even if I am wrong the risk of such unknowns should be factored into investment decisions on geo domains that will theoretically gain in value with demographic changes.
Of course another risk is that the towns merge/change names.
Phil, thanks for the comment. I think it would take more than the browser companies to change protocols. URI schemes and protocols and how they are represented would require a lot more organizations to be involved.
Still your point about the future being unpredictable is well taken. You gave me ideas for other posts. thanks.
I did blog a bit about the semantic web and future navigation back in Feb but it might be time to revisit that.